📅 ALERT SENT TO SUBSCRIBERS
November 6, 2025 at 02:45 AM
Before the outcome was obvious to the market
📈
ALERT #41609
+64.5% ROI

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?: 64.5% ROI - Polyburg Analysis[Side: No]

On November 6, 2025 at 02:45 AM, Polyburg sent an alert to subscribers about Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4? This alert came from tracking aenews2, one of the elite wallets in our monitoring system. The market drew attention due to Israel's significant military actions in the region, although actual escalation to Lebanon occurred on November 6. The trader aenews2 achieved a remarkable ROI of 64.5%, netting a profit of $7316.80 with a $11334.84 investment despite the alert mistakenly focusing on November 4—the ROI demonstrates the precision and timing of their strategic moves.

PERFORMANCE_BREAKDOWN

ROI
+64.5%
Profit/Loss
$7,316.8
Investment
$11,334.84
Outcome
PROFIT
TRADER
aenews2
0x44c1df...13ebc1

MARKET_ANALYSIS

The prediction market surrounding the question of 'Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?' intrigued many analysts due to its geopolitical importance. Using insights from Perplexity research, significant events unfolded as Israel launched its largest post-ceasefire attack on Hezbollah territories in southern Lebanon on November 6, 2025. Despite this, the alert focused on November 4, showcasing how markets can sometimes pivot around anticipated rather than actualized events. Polyburg's AI spotted the notable position held by the trader aenews2, a contender with a consistent track record in volatile markets. Known for showcasing adeptness in navigating 'Will Israel strike Lebanon...' scenarios, aenews2 stood out due to their ability to consistently generate impressive ROIs. Our AI evaluation considered position size, timing, and a conviction score to assess the trader’s potential influence on market directions. These indicators proved vital, as aenews2 capitalized on the unforeseen large-scale military development on November 6, reaffirming the unreliability of speculated market dates. This situation highlights the importance of adaptability and tracking geopolitical cues closely. Through our extensive monitoring process, Polyburg identifies such pertinent opportunities. Learn more about our AI-driven tracking methodology in our FAQ: https://polyburg.com/#faq

HOW_POLYBURG_WORKS

Polyburg uses advanced AI & Machine Learning to track elite Polymarket traders and identify high-conviction opportunities before they become obvious to the market.

Our Methodology:

  • Monitor 100+ elite trader wallets in real-time using proprietary V3 ML algorithm
  • Track actual positions, win rates, and profit patterns across markets
  • Apply anti-bot filters to ensure only quality traders make our rankings
  • Reranks top smart wallets every 24hrs to focus on the hottest traders
  • Calculate conviction scores (1-10) based on position size, timing, and trader performance
  • Send instant Telegram alerts when top-ranked traders make significant moves

This alert came from tracking aenews2, one of the elite wallets in our monitoring system. Our system detected strong signals in their position on this market, sending the alert to subscribers on November 6, 2025 at 02:45 AM.

Learn More About Our Methodology →

⚠️ DISCLAIMER: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This case study is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Prediction markets involve substantial risk of loss. Always conduct your own research.

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