Polymarket Crypto: Trade Bitcoin & Ethereum Price Predictions

Trade crypto price predictions with on-chain data, not CT hype.

Follow whale traders who analyze blockchain metrics, not Twitter sentiment.

Get Crypto Alerts (Free) →

77%

Crypto Trader Win Rate

$1.8M

Crypto Volume/Month

30+

BTC/ETH Markets

Why Crypto Traders Use Polymarket

✓ Price Without Leverage Risk

Predict BTC hits $100K without risking liquidation. Max loss = your stake. No margin calls, no forced exits.

✓ Bet on Timing, Not Just Direction

"Will BTC hit $100K by March 2026?" is different from spot trading. Time-bound predictions = clearer edge.

✓ On-Chain Transparency

See exactly who's betting what. Track whale wallets that trade based on blockchain data, not influencer hype.

✓ Macro + Chain Data Edge

Top crypto traders use on-chain metrics (exchange flows, MVRV ratio, miner capitulation) to predict prices weeks ahead.

Crypto Prediction Markets on Polymarket

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

• Price milestones ("BTC above $100K by Dec 2026?")
• ETF approval markets
• Halving impact predictions
• BTC dominance vs altcoins
• Institutional adoption events

Ξ Ethereum (ETH)

• Price targets ("ETH above $5K?")
• ETH/BTC ratio markets
• Upgrade impact (Dencun, Pectra, etc.)
• Gas fee predictions
• L2 adoption metrics

🪙 Altcoins

• Solana ecosystem growth
• New token launches (airdrops, IDOs)
• DEX vs CEX volume predictions
• Stablecoin market cap
• NFT market trends

🏛️ Regulation & Macro

• SEC regulatory decisions
• Country-level crypto adoption
• Exchange insolvency risks
• Fed policy impact on BTC
• Crypto ETF flows

How Polyburg Crypto Alerts Work

Step 1: We Track On-Chain Analysts

Not CT influencers. Real traders who use blockchain data:

Exchange inflow/outflow data (Glassnode, CryptoQuant)
MVRV ratio (market value vs realized value)
Miner capitulation indicators
Whale wallet accumulation patterns
Funding rate arbitrage opportunities

Step 2: Real-Time Whale Alerts

₿ CRYPTO ALERT — Conviction: 9/10

Market: Will BTC hit $100K by March 2026?

Trader: @OnChainWhale (81% crypto win rate, $840K volume)

Position: $35,000 YES @ 31¢

Expected Edge: 140%+ ROI if YES

Reasoning:
• Exchange reserves down 18% (strong accumulation)
• MVRV ratio at 1.2 (historically low, room to run)
• Halving in 8 months (historically bullish 6-12 months post-halving)
• ETF inflows accelerating ($2.1B last 30 days)

🎯 ACTION: Consider YES @ 31-34¢

*Conviction scores and on-chain reasoning available on Pro tier only.

Step 3: Position Sizing Strategy

Crypto markets are volatile. Risk management is critical:

Max 5-10% per position: Even 9/10 conviction bets can lose
Diversify time horizons: Mix short-term (1-3 months) and long-term (6-12 months) markets
Watch whale exits: If the original trader sells, consider following

Real Example: BTC $100K Prediction (2025)

The Setup (June 2025)

Market: Will BTC hit $100K by December 2025?
Current BTC Price: $68,000
Polymarket Price: 28¢ (28% implied probability)
Public Sentiment: Bearish (post-correction from $72K high)

What Polyburg Saw

2 top crypto analysts made massive YES bets:

• @OnChainKing: $62K on YES @ 28¢ (Conviction: 10/10)

• @GlassnodeAlpha: $41K on YES @ 29¢ (Conviction: 9/10)

The On-Chain Data

Exchange reserves: Down 22% from ATH (whales accumulating off-exchange)
Miner capitulation: Hash ribbons inverted (historically marks bottoms)
MVRV ratio: 1.15 (close to "fair value", not overheated)
ETF flows: BlackRock + Fidelity buying $300M/week
Historical pattern: BTC rallies 80-120% in 6 months post-halving (halving was April 2024)

The Result

BTC hit $104,000 in November 2025.

YES shares (bought @ 28-29¢) resolved at $1.00.
ROI: 246-257%

Users who followed the whale alerts turned $1,000 into $3,460+ in 5 months.

"I don't have time to analyze on-chain data myself. Polyburg shows me when people who DO analyze it are making big bets. That's my signal." — Sarah, Pro subscriber

Crypto Alert Pricing

Essential (Free)

✓ Unlimited crypto alerts
✓ Basic trader info
✓ BTC, ETH, altcoin markets
✗ No conviction scores
✗ No on-chain reasoning

Start Free

FOR TRADERS

Pro ($79/month)

✓ Everything in Essential
✓ Conviction scores (1-10)
✓ On-chain data reasoning
✓ Trader specialization (BTC-only, ETH-only filters)
✓ Historical win rates

Try Pro (3 days, $79)

One good trade pays for itself

Crypto Trading FAQ

Q: How is this different from futures trading?

A: No leverage, no liquidation risk, no funding rates. You're betting on price hitting a milestone by a date, not trading spot/futures.

Q: Can I cash out early?

A: Yes. Polymarket markets are liquid. Sell your shares anytime before resolution (like closing a futures position).

Q: What on-chain data do traders use?

A: Exchange flows (Glassnode), MVRV ratio, miner capitulation (hash ribbons), whale accumulation (Santiment), funding rates (Coinglass).

Q: How do I fund my account?

A: Sign up for Polymarket, deposit USDC on any chain (Ethereum, Polygon, Arbitrum, etc.). Deposits are instant.

Q: What if BTC hits $100K but the market hasn't resolved yet?

A: Market resolution depends on the exact question. "BTC above $100K by Dec 31?" resolves Dec 31. Read market details carefully.

Q: Can I short crypto on Polymarket?

A: Yes. Selling NO shares = betting price WON'T hit the target. Same as shorting, but with defined risk (max loss = stake).

Start Following On-Chain Analysts Today

Free alerts. No on-chain analysis required. Just copy the smart money.

Get Crypto Alerts →

Join 8,105 traders. First alert usually within 24 hours.

← Back to Polyburg Terminal