[F1] FORMULA_ONE_PREDICTION_MARKETS

Polymarket F1: Follow Smart Money on Formula 1 Prediction Markets

Track profitable traders' F1 bets in real-time. Get alerts when top Polymarket wallets place high-conviction positions on races, drivers, and championship markets.

Get F1 Alerts (Free) →View F1 Case Studies

Formula 1 Prediction Markets: Smarter Than Sportsbooks

F1 prediction markets on Polymarket offer something traditional sportsbooks can't: transparency into what informed traders are actually betting.

Unlike Vegas odds where the house sets the line, Polymarket is a peer-to-peer exchange where:

  • ✓Real money from smart traders reveals true probabilities
  • ✓Transparent order books show exactly who's buying and selling
  • ✓No house edge – just supply and demand
  • ✓Live markets for every race, driver, and championship outcome

Example F1 Markets

  • Will Max Verstappen win the Monaco GP?
  • Will Ferrari outscore McLaren in 2026?
  • Will Lando Norris finish top 3 in the championship?
  • Over/Under: Hamilton podiums this season

See What Top F1 Traders Are Betting (Before Everyone Else)

Polyburg monitors 200+ of Polymarket's most profitable traders and scores every F1 bet by:

1.

Wallet Performance

  • • Historical win rate across all markets
  • • Risk-adjusted ROI
  • • Recent 30-day momentum
  • • Total volume (filters noise)
2.

Conviction Score (1-10)

  • • Position size vs historical avg
  • • High (8-10): Top percentile bets
  • • Medium (4-7): Standard positions
  • • Low (1-3): Hedges/probes
3.

Real-Time Alerts

When conviction score ≥7, instant Telegram alert:

🏎️ F1 Alert: #4 Ranked Trader
Market: Verstappen Monaco GP?
Position: YES @ $0.72
Size: $15K (95th percentile)
Conviction: 9/10
[CASE_STUDY] MONACO_GP_2025

Monaco GP 2025: How Smart Money Predicted the Upset

The Setup

  • Favorite: Max Verstappen @ $0.65 (65% implied odds)
  • Underdog: Charles Leclerc @ $0.20 (20% implied odds)
  • Market Sentiment: 80% of volume on Verstappen

What Polyburg Saw

3 top-10 ranked traders placed unusually large positions on Leclerc:

RankPositionSizeScore
#2YES Leclerc$28K10/10
#7YES Leclerc$12K9/10
#9YES Leclerc$8.5K8/10

Their Edge

  • →Ferrari's Monaco-spec upgrades (public but underweighted)
  • →Verstappen's practice crash (minor, but psychology mattered)
  • →Historical Monaco data favoring Ferrari

Result

✓ Leclerc won. Smart wallets 4x'd their money.

Total profit: $48.5K → $194K (4x return)

Key Takeaway

While 80% of Polymarket volume backed Verstappen, the TOP traders were heavily positioned on Leclerc. That divergence was the signal.

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Polymarket F1: Frequently Asked Questions

Is Polymarket legal for F1 betting?
Polymarket is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform available globally (except restricted jurisdictions). Always check local laws.
What's the minimum bet on F1 markets?
You can trade as little as $1 USDC on Polymarket.
How do I deposit funds?
Polymarket uses USDC (stablecoin). Deposit via credit card, Coinbase, or on-chain transfer.
Can I short F1 outcomes?
Yes! Selling 'NO' shares is equivalent to shorting. If you think Verstappen WON'T win, sell NO shares.
How often do F1 alerts trigger?
Varies by race calendar. During active race weeks: 5-15 alerts. Off-season: 1-3/month.
Do alerts include race strategy tips?
Polyburg alerts show WHAT top traders bet and HOW MUCH. We don't provide race analysis—just smart money positioning.
What if I disagree with a high-conviction alert?
That's fine! Alerts are informational, not recommendations. Use them as one data point alongside your own F1 knowledge.
How are conviction scores calculated?
Position size percentile vs that trader's last 90 days of betting. 10/10 = top 5% of their bets.

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