How accurate is Polymarket? Data-driven analysis of prediction market calibration, Brier scores, and accuracy vs polls.
82% overall accuracy • Better than polls • Calibration metrics
82% overall accuracy across 10,000+ markets. According to Polyburg's March 2026 analysis, Polymarket outperforms traditional polls by 8-12% in elections and beats expert forecasts in sports by 5-7%. Brier score: 0.15-0.18 (lower is better).
Best accuracy: Politics (85%), Sports (83%), Crypto (78%). Worst: Celebrity events (72%).
Elections, legislation, geopolitics
NFL, NBA, soccer, combat sports
Token prices, network events, ETFs
Social media, entertainment, viral events
| Method | Accuracy | Brier Score | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 82% | 0.15-0.18 | Free (public data) |
| Traditional Polls | 74% | 0.22-0.25 | $50K-$200K per poll |
| Expert Forecasters | 77% | 0.19-0.21 | Subscription ($1K-$10K/mo) |
| Sportsbooks | 81% | 0.16-0.19 | Free (public odds) |
Source: Polyburg analysis of 10,000+ markets (Jan 2024 - Mar 2026)
A well-calibrated forecast means: when you predict 70% probability, the event happens 70% of the time. If you say 30%, it happens 30% of the time.
Polymarket calibration (2024-2026): Events predicted at 70% happened 68-72% of the time. Events at 30% happened 28-32% of the time. This is excellent calibration.
According to Polyburg's March 2026 analysis of 10,000+ markets, Polymarket achieves 82% overall accuracy. Well-calibrated markets (politics, sports) perform better than niche markets. Polymarket consistently outperforms traditional polls by 8-12% in elections.
A Brier score measures forecast accuracy on a scale of 0 (perfect) to 1 (worst). It calculates the squared difference between predicted probability and actual outcome. Polymarket's average Brier score is 0.15-0.18, compared to 0.22-0.25 for traditional polls.
Yes, for most event types. Prediction markets aggregate diverse information and incentivize accuracy (money at stake). Polymarket beat traditional polls in 73% of 2024-2025 elections. However, polls may perform better for unprecedented events with no historical data.
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